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Spoilers on the results of the survivor episode on Wednesday night.

Jeff Probst, you are wild with this. As we approach the final stage of the almost restarted season of this survivor, long-term fans have been shocked by the new twists and advantages players have to dabble in. It's not that season 41 was bad-it boasted of one of the best survivor casts in a while, and has several outstanding episodes, including last week's epic Shanshan. But for every satisfying role moment or strategic decision, fans have made some fundamental changes to our favorite game, and the latest iteration appeared in this week’s immune challenge, when Probst made the final seven. A new twist was announced: Participation in the exemption challenge is optional, but for those who participate in the competition, the first person to be out needs to play a game of chance on the tribal committee to determine their fate.

The idea that the players in the top seven lose a million dollars in chance because of the game of chance is very unfathomable for this game. This is the same show. After the tie-breaking rock painting sent Paschal home in the fourth season, they completely rearranged the rules to prevent further rock painting scenes unless absolutely necessary. Survivors used to vote to live and die, and this new turning point may bypass voting to get random opportunities. not good.

To make matters worse, the first person to withdraw from the challenge and therefore is now subject to this new twist of volatility is DeShawn, whose narrative has been the strongest in the past few weeks because he is showing up for the conflict in his community. Struggle between impulses instead of playing your own game. In fact, the influence of the Shan vote has a long shadow on this episode, because the Shan has been so big throughout the season. Like all survivor jurors, Shan was not allowed to speak, but she and her huge hoop earrings watched the tribe begin to broadcast the truth after Shan voted, and then evolved into a new diversity of Survivor in casting. Proposed forum.

After initially returning to the camp after the Shan vote and failing to arouse resentment against Ricard, Deshaun attacked the tribal committee with repentance. Shan calling him a snake when she left really hit him, as he did in an interview clip last week-DeShawn talked in front of the entire tribe about how difficult it was to try to show up for his black community (i.e. he and Shan , Liana and Danny) and the games he wants to play to his advantage. Last week, when he voted to eliminate Shan, the latter's impulse to win, but tearful DeShawn in the tribe is clearly still emotional about this. His feelings successfully transformed into a broader conversation, and both Liana and Danny were talking about their pressure to be both Black and Survivor contestants at the same time. It is commendable that the survivors gave them plenty of time to talk, and the result was a fascinating, emotional, and personal conversation. Xander even got props from Danny, because he is a good ally!

Of course, this good atmosphere cannot last forever. In the end, DeShawn had to stand up and face his game of chance: three boxes, only one of which was equipped with a safety device (subtitled Liana: "That's 33%"). This is definitely a very bad thing for someone who goes all out to enter the top 7. But after DeShawn chose his box, Probst opened an unselected box, revealing a skull, which meant elimination. Suddenly, De Shawn’s game of chance becomes the classic Monty Hall problem (subtitled Xander: "This is a Monty Hall problem"). As explained here, the Monty Hall problem, inspired by letting us reach an agreement, is a statistical brain teaser, which almost presents the exact scene DeShawn faces: three blind choices, only one is good, and then The host revealed one of the wrong answers and gave the chooser one last chance to either change his choice or stick to it. Mathematics shows that you should always choose to replace another box. This is a question of probability: when you have 3 options, you have a 66% chance of choosing the wrong one, so you can't see it. You should assume that you have chosen the wrong one of the two boxes. Therefore, when the host shows another wrong box, there is now a 66% probability in your favor, that the remaining boxes are good boxes.

DeShawn obviously doesn't watch the commentary video, which is a good thing. Ignoring mathematics and probability, DeShawn chose to stick to his original box. This was the correct decision: he was not eliminated, and now he is not affected by the vote. This cleared the way for the newly formed Liana to finally vote to eliminate Liana. Xander, Ricard , Erika and Heather's ragtag alliance. That is a strange boatman.

Indeed, DeShawn defeated the Monty Hall problem and avoided a disaster. If he was eliminated because he chose a box rather than because he was eliminated by a vote, it would be an incredibly cheap ending for an increasingly complex and cute character. If Survivor will continue the rapid development of the game, is it too much to require that at least the central premise of people voting out will not be messed up?

As for the rest of the week...

Player of the week: Xander. This guy is incredible. Not only did he get the result he wanted (Liana was vetoed by Ricard), he succeeded in making additional votes, and in the biggest jaw-dropping incident of the week, he actually said, "This is great. Unbelievable" (in fact​​, he, Erika, Heather and Ricard are now the majority alliance) and the result is not an ironic kiss of death. He is now in the top 6 with an immune idol in his pocket, and it looks like Ricard is a shield. Xander looks good and might win!

Honorable mention: Ricard. He survived the most dangerous week for him, where he suddenly became the biggest threat to winning the game. Erika may be right to want to get rid of him, but Ricard's relationship with Xander keeps him safe.

Rough strategy: Liana was unable to build allies outside of her core four alliances, which ultimately put her in trouble. If she strikes a side agreement with Erika, Heather, or even Xander she hates, she might survive.

Alliance Report: DeShawn and Danny are now an outnumbered combination, against most alliances of Xander, Ricard, Erika and Heather-this is worth repeating. After a million years, I never thought I would put these four people together in the driver's seat.

Coming soon next week: This is an idol hunt for the desperate DeShawn and Danny.

People are talking about the survivors of the week on our forum. Join the conversation.

Joe Reid is the executive editor of Primetimer and co-host of the This Had Oscar Buzz podcast. His work has appeared in Decider, NPR, HuffPost, The Atlantic, Slate, Polygon, Vanity Fair, Vulture, The AV Club and other magazines.

Topic: Survivor, CBS, Jeff Probst

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